Ever wondered how often the bookmakers favourite actually wins in Premiership football? It’s actually quite interesting to analyze the percentage of games which go according to the bookmakers odds, and also to see how this varies over the season. For example, it seemed that last week’s mid-week games (mid January 2020) went completely against the odds, so it would be good to find out if there are particular points in the season when this scenario is more likely to occur, or vice a versa, when are most games likely to go to form.
For the data below, I am using result and betting data from the last 13 seasons to find what the percentage of games are won by the favourite team.
Looks like a bit of a mess! and we can see that for the last 13 years, you could only have won 1 accumulator betting on all the favourites! (in the 2014-2015 Season).
If we filter the data and only look at the last 3 seasons, then there is still little correlation between game week and percentage of favourites that win.
Note that historically the average number of Premiership games won by the betting favourite is around 54.8%
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